Friday, May 24, 2013. 35 governors gathered to vote for the
Chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF). With the initial postponement
and intrigues that surrounded it, it was going to be a night of long knives.
With the Presidency interested in the outcome and with Governor Amaechi
determined to give it another shot in spite of his open confrontation with the
President, it was going to take more than ordinary determination to navigate
the treacherous waters.
He recorded the vote counting surreptitiously until when
Governor Godswill Akpabio noticed they were being secretly recorded. When
controversy sprang up on the actual winner of the contest, he released the
video to the public. The man who exposed the lie for what it was was Ogbeni
Rauf Aregbesola, the Governor of Osun State.
Controversy is his middle name. For 9 months, he operated
solely without commissioners. He renamed Osun State and gave it a new
nomenclature called ‘State of Osun.’ He fashioned a new educational policy and
called it reclassification of schools.
In one fell swoop, schools were merged and bedlam ensued. In
one school, we were treated to a picture of students dressed in choir robes,
hijab and masquerade attires as uniform. Some suspected Muslim fundamentalists
broke into a school and flogged a teacher. For the first time in the South
West, religious embers were stoked. Then came the uniform controversy.
All the public schools were mandated to adopt the same
uniform all over the State. Fakunle Comprehensive School, Osogbo was demolished
despite pleas that a school with such a grand tradition should be allowed to
stand. He declared Hijra as a public holiday for Muslims, the only state to do
so in Nigeria. Then he declared another holiday for traditionalists called
‘Isese Day’.
Suspected of being a religious fundamentalist, he donated
N35m for the burial of late Prophet Timothy Obadare. And then the ‘Opon Imo’
controversy. Then came the issue of the ‘Sukuk’ Islamic bond. His tenure could
be appropriately termed ‘one week, one trouble’.
In spite of the unending controversies and despite the
appointment of an Osun State indigene Jelili Adesiyan as the Minister of Police
Affairs, it is my carefully considered opinion that Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola will
win the 9 August election. Here’s why I think he will trump Otunba Iyiola
Omisore, the PDP’s candidate.
1. Omisore’s Poor Candidature
Iyiola Omisore is not Peter Ayodele Fayose. He lacks the
charisma of Fayose. He is not a Jimi Agbaje. He lacks the character of Agbaje.
He doesn’t have the mass appeal even though he has the notoriety. While you
cannot deny that he has a semblance of structure having been the Deputy
Governor of the State and also a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,
his major Achilles heel is that he has been successfully tainted by the
accusation of involvement in Bola Ige’s murder.
This is one accusation that has refused to go in spite of
his protestations. In addition, his campaign is a poor caricature of Ayodele
Fayose’s. Whoever is his campaign director needs to get fired as he has runs
one of the most bizarre and lacklustre campaigns ever. His efforts to align
with the masses fell flat- his handling of two roasted corn cobs in both hands,
his ride to a campaign venue on an ‘okada’ and his absurd combination of two
different ‘Ankara’ materials as cloth are images that have defined his
campaign. He has not successfully exploited Rauf Aregbesola’s obvious
weaknesses.
When it was time to debate Ogbeni, he didn’t show up. That
was an opportunity to redeem himself but he failed to utilize it. Ayo Fayose
challenged Kayode Fayemi for a walk on the streets of Ado-Ekiti but Iyiola
Omisore claimed he didn’t come for the debate because he didn’t want Ogbeni to
beat him up. Is it any wonder that the President has not attended any rally in
Osun State even up till now?
The President must have read the handwriting on the wall and
there was no point dissipating energy in the wrong direction. PDP lost it when
the ticket was given to Omisore because he is irredeemable. If he’s banking on
federal might, he got it wrong this time because you can only rig successfully
where you are popular. In fact, Ogbeni will be gifted this election not because
of his superlative performance but primarily because of Omisore’s poor
candidature.
2. Disunity In The PDP House
No situation exacerbated the looming disunity in Osun State
PDP than the statement credited to the Minister for Police Affairs that he will
beat Senator Isiaka Adeleke when he leaves office. Adeleke claimed he was
assaulted during a party meeting and he subsequently defected to APC.
Fatai Akinbade, a former Chairman of the State PDP and a man
who served three different times as Commissioner under three different military
regimes also defected to the Labour Party. Former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola
has not come out openly in support of Iyiola Omisore despite belonging to the
same party.
In fact, he was even courted by the top echelon of the APC.
As a former National Secretary of the party and also a former Governor of the
State, his body language speaks volumes. Oyinlola is a Prince of Okuku, the
capital of Odo-Otin Local Government, one of the 30 Local Government areas in
Osun State. It is instructive to note that Odo-Otin is one of the three local
government council areas with the highest number of 15 wards in the state after
Osogbo and Iwo.
3. Ogbeni Aregbesola’s Above-Average Performance:
In spite of his controversies, only a blind man will ignore
Ogbeni’s performance. He has built mega schools, many of them super
infrastructures with commendable appurtenances. He has constructed over 20
intercity roads and more than 15 intra-city roads. This is apart from some very
ambitious dualization projects embarked upon.
The free festive inter-city train ride from Lagos to Osogbo
has become a constant feature of his administration. I was informed that he has
built 74 primary health Centres all over Osun State. He has increased IGR in
Osun from N300m to N1.6b and has not been known to borrow from any financial institution,
save for the Islamic bond he took. His O’Meals project is laudable. Love him or
hate him, there’s no denying the fact that he has improved the face of
governance in the state.
4. Ogbeni’s Massive Campaign Network:
Ogbeni has embarked on a blitzkrieg of a campaign. Maybe due
to the lessons learnt from Ekiti’s recent election, he has left no stone
untouched. This is the first time I’m seeing an incumbent campaign as if he’s
the under-dog. He has run a very good campaign so far-both terrestrially and on
social media.
Going by his student unionism antecedents, one is not too
surprised that he has at least two former student leaders in his cabinet and
they are both active in running his campaign. Most of the controversial issues
raised have been either effectively addressed or well mitigated by this team.
When the issue of religious fundamentalism came up, they released the video of
Bishop David Oyedepo’s visit.
Ogbeni has been photographed genuflecting to Pastor Enoch
Adejare Adeboye. He attended a major night vigil organized by a white garment
church. He has been dancing ‘skelewu’ at all rallies to show he can connect
with the populace. He has run his campaign without Bola Tinubu being visible so
the issue of the overbearing influence of the APC leader has been largely well
managed. Ogbeni runs the best propaganda machinery in the South West and the
effect can be seen in how he has successfully diverted attention from his
controversies while making Omisore seem to be the controversial one.
5. The Seeming Inconsequential Position of Osun In National
Politics:
In the calculation of the PDP, Osun State may not really be
worth the trouble. Like Ekiti, one would have expected a massive support from
the centre but apart from the involvement of the Minister for Police Affairs
Jelili Adesiyan and party big wig Buruji Kashamu, no other major PDP political
actor has been to Osun State.
Not even the Vice President Namadi Sambo who usually
represents the President on most occasions. The PDP Chairman has been missing
in action conspicuously and in my opinion two major issues come into
consideration here: firstly, the antecedents of Osun politics where the state
was the only one won by the erstwhile ACN candidate Nuhu Ribadu during the 2011
Presidential elections without having any impact on the outcome of the full
national election results. The resources are limited and they would rather
concentrate such where they can get the greatest political capital-Adamawa,
Nassarawa, Edo, Oyo, Ogun and Lagos States.
The second is the opportunity to take the wind out of the
sail of APC’s complaint that Osun’s elections will be rigged by the PDP just
like they suspected it was done in Ekiti. Furthermore, it is PDP’s calculation
that APC will be misled to believe they have stopped PDP’s incursion in the
South West. Consequently, if APC wins Osun, the party will be seen to be a bad
loser anytime it complains after another loss. So PDP can afford to lose Osun
State without batting an eyelid.
6. Ogbeni’s Grassroots Support:
Rauf Aregbesola is well schooled in the art of politics. He
has been able to successfully marry both politicking and governance which was
one of the major issues Governor Kayode Fayemi had. You can accuse him of
everything but you can never accuse him of not connecting with the populace.
With the pupils, he has appeared in their school uniform on many occasions. He
has held his health walk in several towns across the states. He has several
mushroom groups such as De Raufs located all over the state and these ones
project his ideology. He has given himself the identity of ‘Oranmiyan’, a
progenitor that the Yorubas respect.
His support base is not limited to a particular demographics
– he has a broad base across all sectors in the state. Ogbeni is street smart
and can fight dirty if need be. A veteran of many political battles, he is not
a gentleman like Kayode Fayemi and can be very rambunctious. That was why he
asked people to come to the polling units with charms on Election Day. If there
is anyone who is a true protege of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he is one. That is one of
the reasons the Ekiti story cannot repeat itself in Osun State.
7. The Geo-Political Demographics in Osun State:
The geopolitical demographics currently favour Ogbeni
Aregbesola. Ogbeni is from Osun East Senatorial District, the largest district
in the State.Though Iyiola Omisore also hails from the same district, Ogbeni is
from Ilesa, one of the three biggest towns with the highest number of voters in
the state while Omisore is from Ile-Ife. Osun East with a voting strength close
to 500,000 comprises of 10 Local Government Areas- 4 in Ife and 6 in
Ijeshaland.
There are about 1.2m registered voters in the state. Ogbeni
is expected to have a clean sweep of all the 6 Local Governments in Ijeshaland
while Omisore will sweep his own 4 Local Government areas. However, Ogbeni’s
deputy Mrs Laoye-Tomori is from the state capital, Osogbo and so he’s expected
to pick up the votes in the town. Iwo, which is the largest town in the State
is predominantly Muslim and this will also play to Ogbeni’s favour.
Omisore’s deputy, ex-Speaker Adejare Bello hails from Ede,
the same town Senator Isiaka Adeleke hails from. ‘Serubawon’ as the Senator and
former Governor is popularly called has more grassroots support in Ede than
Bello. His family even has a University called Adeleke University in Ede.
I present to you below my take on the electoral
configuration that will arise during the August 9 election across the 30 Local
Government Areas in Osun State.
Aiyedaade – Omisore
Aiyedire – Omisore
Atakunmosa East – Ogbeni
Atakunmosa West – Ogbeni
Boluwaduro – Ogbeni
Boripe – Ogbeni
Ede North – Ogbeni
Ede South – Ogbeni
Egbedore – Ogbeni
Ejigbo – Ogbeni
Ife Central – Omisore
Ife East – Omisore
Ife North – Omisore
Ife South – Omisore
Ifedayo – Ogbeni
Ifelodun – Ogbeni
Ila – Ogbeni
Ilesa East – Ogbeni
Ilesa West – Ogbeni
Irepodun – Ogbeni
Irewole – Ogbeni
Isokan – Ogbeni
Iwo – Ogbeni
Obokun – Ogbeni
Odo Otin – Ogbeni
Ola Oluwa – Ogbeni
Olorunda – Ogbeni
Oriade – Ogbeni
Orolu – Ogbeni
Osogbo – Ogbeni
By : Bayo Adeyinka
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